Understanding the Economic Shock of the Covid-19 Crisis 2022

May 22, 2022



Predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, but we can speculate about the size and scale of the economic shock.

Economic contagion is now spreading as fast as Covid-19 itself. Social distancing, intended to physically disrupt the spread, has severed the flow of goods and people, stalled economies, and is in the process of delivering a global recession. Predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, as multiple dimensions of the crisis are unprecedented and unknowable. Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis. This Explainer explores several scenarios to model the size and scale of the economic shock and the path ahead.

Based on the HBR article by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Martin Reeves and Paul Swartz

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37 Comments
  1. The resulting depression coming as a result of the scamdemic will kill far more then covid ever could.

  2. How does covid 19 affect the 21st century society?

  3. You are using covid as an excuse to ceate poverty . You should be much more assertive about how to prevent un absurd use of restrictions due to sanitary control.

  4. macroeconomics class anyone?

  5. lobists

  6. Spoil alert: Its a V shape

  7. “Life saving stay at home orders”? Tell that to all the people who have committed suicide from the orders of these tyrants…..tell it to people starving people in emerging economies that can’t sell their product due to us government mandates and shutdowns

  8. The debt should be wiped it is a world life saving effort to save lives they are taking the piss out of everyone, the money did not exist so the debt doesn’t exist wake up people stand up and tell them the debt should be Wiped! Or are you gonna just wear their bulls..t.
    Stop and think bout it!
    Peace ✌️

  9. My gay teacher made me watch this for class. 0/10

  10. This is why we need to study the prevention of pandemics since they do seem to hurt the economy. It had an impact in 1918, in 2007-2009, and of course in 2020-2021.

  11. Net, life losing measures, not saving!

  12. 🙏🏼🌹👍👍👍✌️…+1.~

  13. Reply
    כולנו ביחד May 22, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    Selfish People Can’t Produce Unselfish Solutions

    In Europe and elsewhere, governments are paying colossal sums to big corporations to help them avert bankruptcy. Whether they call it a “rescue package” or “quantitative easing,” in the end it’s all the same: the government pays companies to stay operative.
    I don’t think it will work in the long run. It may keep companies afloat for another six months or a year, but as a rule, a government, any government, cannot sustain companies that cannot sustain themselves. In the end, the situation will blow up in a blast that will be worse than what it would have happened had the government let them fall naturally.
    There is more to it than that. I don’t believe that a government can do anything good for its people. Civil servants, ministers, and deputy ministers always pull their own way and have their own interests in mind. Since everyone is inherently selfish, everyone has an ulterior motive that is not for the benefit of the public.
    We cannot expect selfish people to do unselfish acts; it is like asking a tiger to become vegetarian. If it goes against nature and it won’t work. Therefore, asking people whose only focus is their own career to focus on other people’s well-being is unwise, unrealistic, and will invariably fail.
    Socialists, capitalists, far right, or far left, they are all immersed in egoism. It is not their fault; it is human nature, and we should adjust our expectation from our leaders.
    If we want a real and lasting positive change, we must transform human nature. Since our nature is selfish to the core, changing it is the only way out of the crises that the world is falling into nowadays. We will fall deeper and deeper until we realize that the problem is not the fuel we burn, the forests we cut, the water we pollute, or the people we kill. The problem is the cause of all those harms we are inflicting on nature and on each other: our inherent self-absorption. When we start working on changing ourselves rather than demanding everything and everyone else to change, we might be able to save ourselves before it is too late.

  14. Please, government isn't an economic agent, so there is no such thing like government's money, consequently government doesn't Help, but redistributs extorted from the labors/economic agents money.
    Is an extortion and murky redistribution is a good thing?
    For the first time government redirects funds kinda back to the source, that's new, but again, people don't understand that they receive their very own money back and handle it like a free lunch by buying inflated assets thus redirect the funds back to the elites.

  15. read this important blogs –
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    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/ecommerce-stores-to-operate-properly-in-lockdown/

    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/top-10-ways-to-boost-creativity-during-lockdown/

    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/ecommerce-website-key-features/

    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/covid-19-after-effects-on-top-7-businesses-of-the-world/

    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/make-more-money-in-lockdown-with-these-8-businesses/

    https://www.technogleam.com/blog/how-to-operate-your-business-in-the-pandemic-of-covid-19/

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  16. can i use this for my university task? thanks before

  17. I would love to learn how to make animations like this! Well done! (Other than that also a great video!)

  18. Reply
    Digital Asset News May 22, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    In this situation digital currency comes first and with that it can lead to high inflation….. The most reason why digital currency comes first….

    These because the world is becoming more civilized everyday and technology taking place and also when we talk about digital currency were talking about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and the rest of them…

  19. Jesus Loves all of you guys <3

  20. Reply
    jesus's disciple last time May 22, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    Jesus is coming soon!
    Psalms 50chapter
    15. and call upon me in the day of trouble: i will deliver thee,and thou shalt glorify me.

  21. Probably good for microeconomist and macroeconomist, lobbyist and think tank academics to have endless debates always fun to read HBR for fun as a hobby. Not really practical for regular millennials

  22. Reviews only, things that we all know.

  23. I recently just started investing in bitcoin when I learnt it was $60000 through the help of Austin and just an hour ago I got a profit of $9000 into my wallet..

  24. Covid could have destroyed the worldwide economic system. God will do it if the rich don't fix the planet, stop wars, and help the poor.
    The Federal Reserve has secretly bailed out many of the world's banks, corporations, and governments.

  25. For some problems in my family I hate alcohol and one day words start coming out of my mouth like "ONE DAY THERE WILL BE NO MORE ALCOHOL IN THE WORLD " , WORDS ARE REALLY POWERFU!!
    We must be careful wat we say.
    EARTH WILL BE INVADED BY ALIENS☺

  26. The coronavirus outbreak really affected a lot financially.. wish someone would suggest a better way of earning money🙂

  27. Please help me

  28. How to make this kind of video

  29. Crypto currency is the future, investing in it will be the wisest thing to do especially with the current rise.

  30. Truly stunning shocks… "Decree for me, by Thy bounty, O Lord, that which shall prosper me in this world and hereafter and shall draw me nigh unto Thee, O Thou Who art the Lord of all men. There is none other God but Thee, the One, the Mighty, the Glorified." ~ Bahá’u’lláh, Baha'i Faith

  31. Recession is only inevitable because people are in fear of the common flu that is propelled by media bias… wake up check this out.
    https://youtu.be/RDjwGA70B_k

  32. Why is this? Why the government has to put the country’s in this situation the numbers of COVID still increasing even when a lot of business are close now and a lot of people lost their jobs if people got the COVID they have to stay at home but not the people that are healthy they have to keep working the people from government are not thinking in us and the people with small businesses

  33. that will just cause inflation which will get worse and worse they should just make people work from home or different workers on different days and that way productivity will still be stabilized and no inflation

  34. According to the official statistics, South Africa has turned into one of the greatest epicenters of Covid-19 in the world. Since the beginning of April to the 12th July, the cumulative number of infections in South Africa has doubled about every 14 days. On 12 July 2020, 264,184 cumulative cases have been recorded, slightly more than double the 131,800 on 28 June, 14 days before. South Africa was firmly on track to record half a million cumulative infections by 25 July. Community spread appeared unstoppable. At that rate of increase, 1 million would have been infected by 8 August, 2 million by 22 August, 4 million by 5 September, 8 million by 19 September, 16 million by 3 October and some 32 million by 17 October 2020. That would represent 53% of the population of over 59 million people. The daily number of new infections should then have dropped off steeply. On that trend, over the first two weeks of October, between one and two million new infections were likely to occur daily. The growth of new cases in adjoining areas, such as Zimbabwe, Namibia, Eswathini, Botswana and Lesotho was much, much slower.
    However, on 13 July, the number of new cases in South Africa dropped significantly by about 1,440, or about 11%. The day before, the 12 July 2020, sales of alcoholic beverages were prohibited in South Africa, creating a false impression that the ban was the cause of the drop in numbers. However, this is false, because the normal lag period of some 5 to 10 days between the introduction of a new measure that is effective, and a reduction in case numbers, was completely absent, clearly identifying it as fake. This trend of a reduction of new cases continued daily and became progressively stronger. The result was that, today, 19 October, the official cumulative number of cases in South Africa stands at 703,793 instead of well over 50% of the population, had the 'trend' of doubling every 13 or 14 days continued. There is no rational reason for a ban on liquor sales to cause such a sudden, steep drop in new cases. Hence the conclusion is that, over the three-and-a-half months before 12 July, the numbers have been manipulated up, as were the numbers on recoveries. Death numbers, on the other hand, were manipulated down: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-07-29-excess-deaths-soar-to-more-than-four-times-official-covid-19-toll-mrc-data-shows/
    The question is, why have the case numbers been manipulated up?
    Early this year, South Africa applied for an IMF loan of US$4.3 billion at a very low interest rate. On 27 July, the IMF publicly announced that the loan was granted – https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/07/27/pr20271-south-africa-imf-executive-board-approves-us-billion-emergency-support-covid-19-pandemic Most likely, South Africa was informed of the grant earlier than the public announcement, perhaps around 12 July? Clearly, the numbers in South Africa have been manipulated up to impress on the IMF an urgent need for funds to fight the epidemic in the country. Most of the funds are likely to land in the pockets of corrupt people in positions of power and their family.
    A further question is, what is the real motive for the ban on liquor sales?
    The answer is that the ban on liquor sales will most likely drive many liquor stores out of business. The liquor trade is seen as lucrative, easy business. White owners of such businesses are exempt on a racist basis of financial assistance to weather the covid storm, including the IMF funds. Many of these businesses are likely to go bankrupt and be bought up at bargain prices by black politicians, their family members https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-07-31-ace-magashules-sons-each-bag-a-free-state-covid-19-contract/amp/?__twitter_impression=true and other black business people, perhaps using some of the IMF funds paid for other contracts where contract prices have been loaded – https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/covid-19-sahrc-set-to-probe-gauteng-health-spending-amid-corruption-claims-20200730
    And https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-07-30-province-to-disclose-ppe-procurement-details-to-avoid-corruption/
    And https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2020-08-06-the-ppe-scandal-that-the-treasury-hasnt-touched/
    Fraud and corruption assume many a guise. The South African government is rotten through from top to bottom and the people in power are out on the loot. They saw an opportunity and they jumped on it. But at the same time, they are doing the South African population a grave disservice, endangering peoples' lives and livelihoods – this week, a real second wave of infections has only just started in South Africa, but it will be masked by the huge false first wave. But, what the hell, never miss the opportunities a good crisis offers, hey? This time, however, the South African black elite defrauded the international community, co-members of the IMF – perhaps strategically a grave error?

  35. Economic concerns is the major concern than health, this lockdown is worsening situation. I don't know what lockdown even exists.

  36. Looking after multiple countries… Been tracking everyone recovery…. Its quite true…

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